According to the wish of an Armenian-Iranian friend of mine, who looks like the young Elizabeth Taylor and has the fitting name that translates as Venus in English, I write today about the revolutions in countries like Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine and now also in Belarus.
Basically, the Kremlin faces these days a lose-lose situation in regards of Belarus. Due the fact that the current events in Belarus could only lead to two scenarios. Either revolutions like the «Rose-Revolution» in Georgia (2003) and the two revolutions on the Maidan in Ukraine (2004 and 2014), or to a “Velvet Revolution” like in Armenia (2018), that brought Nikol Pashiniyan to power.
Even if there will be “only” a “Velvet Revolution” in Belarus like there was in Armenia 2018 the Kremlin will lose. Due the geographical proximity of Belarus to Poland and the Baltic States a rapprochement of Belarus to western-minded countries will become inevitable. This puts the interests of the Kremlin in jeopardy and invading Belarus is currently not on the table because an invasion of Belarus would lead to more sanctions and would isolate Russia even further. This is something that the Kremlin certainly doesn’t need because it puts additional pressure on the Russian rulers who are already under pressure due to the obvious mismanagement of the Covid-19-pandemic, the ailing economy, the overall corruption and the fact that organized crime in Russia dares to commit audacities in broad daylight again. Even the little imperialist adventures of Russia come now with a heavy price-tag of an unexpected magnitude.
Even the Russian proxies like Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali-region/South-Ossetia slip observably through the fingers of the Kremlin and Russia has to send more and more money there to keep their viceroys there in charge and pleased. Because even in Abkhazia different fractions of the Kremlin proxies there loathe and fight each other up to recurrent revolts in front of the “presidential palace” and the “parliament” that lead to ousting of the “government” there. In the Tskhinvali-region/South-Ossetia that since the occupation through Kremlin-proxies resembles a resurrected mini-version of the Soviet-Union under Brezhnev, unlike Abkhazia that is more like mafia-republic on the Black sea. The resemblance of the Tskhinvali-region/South-Ossetia appears through the fact the Tskhinvali-region is one of the few entities in the post-soviet-space that kept the KGB* and through reoccurring shortages of staple foods like dairy-products. Because of that and due to the fact that the authorities in the Tskhinvali-region/South-Ossetia torture their subjects shamelessly, and this time was an actual Ossetian the unfortunate victim of said torture, now there are protests in the Tskhinvali-region. However, these protests are in complete vain because the Kremlin still supports Anatoly Bibilov, the so-called “president” of “South Ossetia” and Europe barely cares about the stuff that happens in Belarus. The fact that there are protests counts for something and shows the obvious fact that the Kremlin is about to lose over territories that have fewer inhabitants than a constituency in Moscow. The Kremlin and the KGB-gnome have no “Plan B” at hand. The KGB-gnome also refuses to select a successor despite the fact that he is already 68 years old out of fear of being ousted like Khrushchev back then. This despite the fact that the KGB-gnome is now longer in charge than Stalin himself. In addition to that the people that live in countries that used to be under the yoke of the Soviet-empire are fed up with the Russian chauvinism, the aggressive foreign policy of Moscow and the viceroys of the Kremlin in their countries.
As I wrote in my earlier pieces this means that there will be even more protests and “Colourrevolutions” in the foreseeable future in countries that used be part of the Soviet-empire. No matter what the autocrats and dictators who rule through Moscow’s grace are saying. One just has to remember the how confident the Kolkhoz-dictator Lukashenko acted, and now there are ongoing protests in Minsk, Gomel and Grodno. These protests don’t stop just because the Kolkhoz-dictator demands it. Because it is a matter of fact that the combination of corruption, nepotism, lawlessness and a lack of human- and civil-rights has even the post-soviet-realm no future.
Hence why I highlight the fact that it is of great importance to support the civil society in countries like Belarus, Ukraine and in the Caucasus so the people are equipped to deal with the propaganda from Moscow. Because the future already has started and this future does not include a renaissance of the Soviet-empire but the continuation of the detachment of those countries that used to be part of the Soviet-empire and now regained independence. This fact should finally be accepted by the KGB-gnome in the Kremlin as it should be accepted by the (semi-professional) Kremlin-apologists. This way Russia can finally focus on the countless problems that are haunting the country and that are currently not fixed because of the imperialist delusions of grandeur. Because one cannot turn back time, neither in Minsk nor in Tbilisi.
*The other few being the Republic of Belarus under Lukashenko and the so-called “Peoples Republics” in the Donbass.